Statistical Outlook: Can the GOP Candidates Really Beat Hillary?

~ Benjamin Ryan ~ Leave a comment

(In the graph above, anything below zero means Hillary loses)

All the GOP candidates say that they beat Hillary in the polls. This is true and untrue. It’s true because each has at least one major poll that has them beating Hillary in the general election, it’s untrue because they disregard average margin of error, which is based on sample size. The only one who REALLY has a legitimate claim is Marco Rubio, who even only slightly exceeds the average margin of error. My point is this: it’s a virtual tie across the board  right now between any GOP candidate and Hillary. As a note, there is almost no polling data on a Kasich v. Clinton general election, so he’s discluded from this. Let’s run it down:

 

Trump vs. Hillary:

 

Trump beats Hillary in one of the last six major polls. In all, the average of the polls gives Hillary a +6.3 lead. The average margin of error is 3.13, For a percentage interval of +3.17 – +9.43 for Hillary. Trump fares worse than the other GOP candidates, and yet in terms of electoral history, this too is a virtual tie.

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Super Tuesday Breakdown: Trump and Clinton Dominate

~ Benjamin Ryan ~ Leave a comment

Here’s the likely winners for Super Tuesday states with avg. of polls lead in parenthesis:

GOP primaries:

Alabama: Trump (+17)

Georgia: Trump (+14)

Tennessee: Trump (+18)

Oklahoma: Trump (+11)

Massachusetts: Trump (+27)

Vermont: Trump (+15)

Virginia: Trump (+15)

Alaska: Trump or Cruz (Trump + 4 but only from one poll)

Arkansas: Trump or Cruz (Cruz +4)

Minnesota: Rubio (+2 but only from one poll)

Colorado: Trump or Rubio (Carson led in last major poll from Nov)

Wyoming: Any

Texas: Cruz or Trump (Cruz +9)

 

Democratic primaries:

Alabama: Clinton (+48)

Georgia: Clinton (+37)

Tennessee: Clinton (+26)

Oklahoma: Clinton or Sanders (Clinton +2)

Massachusetts: Clinton or Sanders (Clinton +7)

Vermont: Sanders (+74)

Virginia: Clinton (+22)

Arkansas: Clinton (+29)

Minnesota: Clinton (+34)

Colorado: Clinton (+28 but last major poll from Nov)

Texas: Clinton (+30)

 

Liberal Leaders Meet in D.C. to Discuss Rising Violent Crime in Their Cities

~ Benjamin Ryan ~ Leave a comment

So there was a meeting in D.C. about two weeks ago to discuss the stark rise in violent crime over the past year, especially in cities with liberal policies and mayors. The conclusion: police are “cowering” because of the war against them. And it’s true. Why would NYPD officers put themselves at risk for a leader like de Blasio who doesn’t stick up for them and has even attacked them? In general liberal leaders across the country have destroyed police morale and are contributing to the crumbling of American society. They need to be removed from office, because we are all in danger under their failed leadership. Police killings are fairly rare. Murder in general is not though; Nor is rape, or violent assault. These crimes are all skyrocketing under liberal leadership. But no one cares about the victims of these crimes. All anyone cares about is the rare unjustified police shooting. And so the mob has been riled up against the police under false pretenses. We get the society we deserve.

Please, For the Sake of Human Values, Let Us Not Turn From This

~ Benjamin Ryan ~ Leave a comment

America is facing a horrific scandal. No, this is not about Cecil the Lion (though certainly a troublesome story in its own right), instead this is about something a whole lot darker and more depraved. This is not the story of one man’s psychotic lust for animal heads on his wall, but of an entire system of ethics and morals gone awry. Yes, it’s time for Griffwood to cover the Planned Parenthood scandal, because hardly anyone else will give it a thorough examination.

As you may or may not know the Center For Medical Progress, an anti-abortion organization, recently conducted a sting in which it sent actors to pose as buyers of fetal tissue interested in obtaining specimens from Planned Parenthood (an organization that receives hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars every year). The “buyers” met with Planned Parenthood higher-ups and engaged them in discussions about the costs and techniques involved in the transfer of the fetal parts. All of it was secretly recorded on video and what transpired in the conversations shocked people across the country on both sides of the political aisle.

In this video we see Planned Parenthood Federation of America’s Senior Director of Medical Services, Dr. Deborah Nucatola happily nosh away at her food and sip wine as she casually describes the techniques Planned Parenthood Doctors use during abortions to avoid “crushing” fetuses, in order to remove the parts more intact: “We’ve been very good at getting heart, lung, liver, because we know that, so I’m not gonna crush that part, I’m gonna basically crush below, I’m gonna crush above, and I’m gonna see if I can get it all intact.” We also see her explain how the Federal Law banning partial-birth abortions is up for “interpretation” and seems to imply that some fetuses could be coming out alive.

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Police Killings Confrontation at Columbia University

~ Benjamin Ryan ~ Leave a comment

So some group was protesting on campus today. They were screaming about how the police are the modern day KKK and how officers are murdering black people off. I confronted them about their incendiary rhetoric and they predictably did not respond very well. The main guy who was yelling the worst things wouldn’t even face me, as he saw I was bringing in facts. The whole confrontation was much longer than the video, but their argument can be summed up by a few of their quotes to me:

“You seem to be wrapped up in facts.”
“I don’t want to listen to you.”
“Maybe the way you learn is fact-based, but that’s not the way I learn.”
“You’re white.”
“You’re speaking from privilege.”

Europe’s Jews Flee: Why Netanyahu’s Call for Exodus Was Needed

~ Benjamin Ryan ~ 1 Comment

“Jews have been murdered again on European soil only because they were Jews, and this wave of terrorist attacks – including murderous anti-Semitic attacks – is expected to continue […] But we say to Jews, to our brothers and sisters: Israel is your home. We are preparing and calling for the absorption of mass immigration from Europe. I would like to tell all European Jews and all Jews wherever they are: Israel is the home of every Jew.” – Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu on Feb. 15, 2015.

Last Sunday, in the wake of the murder of a Jewish man by an Islamic radical at a Synagogue in Denmark and the desecration of a Jewish cemetery in France, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called for the mass migration of European Jews to Israel and unveiled a $46 million (USD) plan to assist in the migration of Jews from France, Belgium, and Ukraine.

Bibi’s words are important not only because of what they actually call for, but because of their effect. When the Israeli Prime Minister (or any major Jewish leader) calls for Jews to leave Europe, it is a censure on Europe. Just look how the French and other leaders have responded: they are going out of their way to demonstrate solidarity with and care for Jews. I am not going to say that I am thrilled with French President François Hollande’s response (“I will not just let what was said in Israel pass, leading people to believe that Jews no longer have a place in Europe and in France in particular.”) because he attacked Bibi’s words rather than the desecrators and murderer, but nonetheless visited the cemetery, and that is an important symbolic gesture for Jews. French Prime Minister Manuel Valls said that France would protect French Jews from “Islamo-fascism.” It is huge for a leader to acknowledge that and actually use the phrase “Islamo-fascism” (take note President Obama) and he went on to add, “A Jew who leaves France is a piece of France that is gone,”. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said “We are glad and thankful that there is Jewish life in Germany again. And we would like to continue living well together with the Jews who are in Germany today.” Denmark’s Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt said, “My message is that all of Denmark feels with you. This is not the Denmark we want. We want a Denmark where people freely can choose one’s religion.” This kind of desperate rhetoric is directly forced by Bibi’s words. Just by saying what he said, he has advanced the safety of Jews around the world.

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Off Target: The Senate’s Report on Torture Failed Americans

~ Devin Guilliams ~ 1 Comment

There are many problems with the Senate Intelligence Committee’s report on CIA Enhanced Interrogations (EITs). Many of these problems have been duly noted in various periodicals over the past several months or so. These problems being, but not limited to, the lack of bipartisan effort to flesh out the truth behind EITs, the lack of investigative measures taken by the committee, most notably not interviewing key CIA leaders, and many other problematic issues.

As many have come forward with their concerns, from former intelligence officials, to political leaders, to pundits, all seem to miss the main problem with the report; that it focuses on the wrong question: Were EITs an effective and a useful means of obtaining information? Not only does the committee’s report fail to objectively dissect this question, it grossly frames the debate away from the real question the public should consider: Do EITs uphold moral, legal, and ethical standards as a means to an end? This SHOULD be the main question when parsing this subject. Why is the public allowing itself to be distracted by a subordinate question that misframes the debate, and why are certain leaders instigating partisan smoke and mirror tactics when considering the topic of EITs from a legal and ethical perspective?

The main reason is because humans struggle to weigh certain lives against others, (at least societies that tend to uphold moral and ethical standards do). If given the decision to save 10 lives in exchange for one, humans will most always struggle to decide on the best course of action when confronted with such a conundrum. Senate leaders do not want to tackle such ethical dilemmas, because they view it as a political loser, and would rather mislead and frame the debate in a manner that is convulted clouded in false reporting absent of the facts members of the IC would prefer to put forward professionaly and responsibly.

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8 Interpreted Quotes from the State of the Union Address

~ Benjamin Ryan ~ 1 Comment

President Obama delivered the annual State of the Union Address last Tuesday, and as one might expect of any SOTU: it was rife with hyperbolized claims of accomplishments, and subtle jabs at the opposition party, one witty line of which, reminded the Chamber of his campaign victories and seems to have sufficiently satisfied his base aside from the rest of his speech.

However, he also made some vague references to the state of political and social discourse during his Presidency and seemed to blame his critics for their ‘rashness’ and ‘cynicism’, while touting his policies, many of which backfired on him, as the wise way to move forward. The following is my humble attempt to dissect some of his statements in the hope of providing a clearer picture about what was said:

1. “The shadow of crisis has past…”

What he means here is that he is, again, brushing the numerous crises that have plagued his administration, under the rug without providing the American people with answers: Solyndra, Benghazi, the VA, Fast and Furious, inaction on Syria and ISIL, subpoenaing journalists, Healthcare.Gov, GSA, IRS, and so on and so on… He has ‘turned the page’ without letting people read it.

2. “Will we approach the world fearful and reactive, dragged into costly conflicts that strain our military and set back our standing? Or will we lead wisely, using all elements of our power to defeat new threats and protect our planet?”

Here, Obama proclaims that we will be hesitant to act, which will allow evil to spread without America in the way, because it’s not our job to deal with it. It took the USA months to act on ISIL while thousands were raped, tortured, and murdered. It’s not reactionary to want a swift response to ISIL, it’s the decent thing to do. It doesn’t take a deep analysis to figure out that they are the bad guy. However, it takes immeasurable levels of moral equivocation not to act against them when we can.

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