Looking Back at Trump’s Victory

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I have no reason to gloat. President-elect Trump now has to follow through on his message to better this country and the world. In his victory speech he extended a hand to those who opposed him and he promised to address the problems in our inner cities. This is a good start.

While the hysteria that has plagued this election has persisted on social media, with many Hillary supporters declaring the onset of the apocalypse, I have to say, I have also seen quite a few Hillary supporters and Never-Trumpers make statements about uniting and working together. Credit to those people. Hillary supporters should know, they are not my enemy, and I admit to there being plenty of stupidity on both sides this election.

However, now the divisive, hyperbolic, defamatory rhetoric needs to stop.

Americans voted against the far left. They were tired of being called racist and sexist simply for holding opinions contrary to what democrats believe. They were tired of having their words policed while real problems are ignored. They were tied of regressive groups that disseminate untruths and neglect actual victims of suffering. They were tired of an overwhelmingly leftist mainstream media that looks down on them and presents them as stupid and uninformed. The American people also rejected the establishment politicians who have perpetuated the same wasteful, gluttonous, corrupt system that has plagued our country for decades. They rejected convention and they voted for change.

What Trump did is miraculous. He was an outsider who came in with no political experience and won the GOP nomination for president. He then went on to take out the Clinton machine, all the while contending with fierce opposition from the left and from his own political party, and with an entire mainstream news media telling the country he couldn’t win. Trump did what few believed he could do, and what neither John McCain or Mitt Romney could do: he beat the Democrat to win the presidency.

In the end, Hillary lost because like President Obama in 2008, Trump became a symbol, a symbol representing the fight against PC culture, against corruption, and against the demonization of America and Western Culture. And whether fair or not, Hillary became a symbol of the opposite.

America has spoken: Donald Trump is to lead us. You can now choose to be part of the solution or the problem. I hope most people choose the former.

-Ben Sweetwood

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Griffwood Post Endorses Donald Trump for President

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America needs a revitalization of its confidence and its resolve. For eight years, President Obama has introduced domestic legislation that relies on government-centered solutions, and a foreign policy that sows resentment around the world through hesitancy to act and broken promises.

Hillary Clinton promises more of the same and worse. A Clinton Presidency means America continues to decline both on the world stage and in the minds of the American people.

Abroad, the world has always looked to America to do the right thing. Syrians are caught in the middle of a bloody civil war, many residents of the Middle East live under brutal regimes, and anxious world observers of the rise of China and Russia are looking for reassurance that the world won’t devolve into global chaos. Thousands in the bloody path of the Islamic State desperately seek a lifeline. There is no hope for these victims under a Clinton presidency. As Secretary of State, Clinton demonstrated a severe lack of judgment in her support of the Iran deal, the shifting Syrian red-line on chemical warfare, and the disastrous intervention in Libya. Obama spent eight years doing as little as possible on the world stage, and Clinton supported him. Clinton also demonstrated a willingness to lie to the American people when she told the world a video spurred on the attacks in Benghazi. Clinton’s time as Secretary of State was only a preview of the Clinton foreign policy doctrine, which we at Griffwood are terming ‘The Nero Doctrine’. A Clinton administration would mean a world that continues to burn.

At home, our economy suffers under the weight of an expensive, burdensome government. At her rallies and within her policy proposals, Clinton only offers government as a solution to the country’s economic concerns.

Trump recognizes the power of the free market and innovation to build society and empower individuals.

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Noncompliance of the Condorcet Criterion: Does Plurality Voting Justify a Contested Convention?

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In the current election, spectators have often wondered why someone like Trump, who has a 64% negative rating by likely voters according to the latest WSJ/NBC poll, has been dominating the primary season so far. For political scientists the answer is simple: plurality voting is not Condorcet compliant. In political science, a Condorcet method, is one in which a candidate that wins in a 1v1 matchup with each of the other candidates wins overall. If such a candidate exists, that person is called the Condorcet winner. Furthermore, a Condorcet loser is a candidate who loses to each opposing candidate in a 1v1 matchup, and the Condorcet criterion says that if such a candidate exists, he cannot win. If these criterion are satisfied, then the voting system is what is known as Condorcet consistent. Trump is a Condorcet loser because he loses to every other candidate in a head-to-head matchup. The question thus arises, do the flaws of plurality voting justify losing candidates remaining in the race past their point of feasible victory, in pursuit of a contested convention? First, I digress.

 

Condorcet winners and losers are very simple concepts in their most basic sense but are really difficult to apply to the United States system. The Condorcet criterion is an extension on majority rule and is compliant in majoritarian voting systems. In terms of this election the Condorcet loser violates the majority loser criterion because a majority of voters prefers every candidate one-on-one to Trump but Trump still wins. This is a great example of noncompliance of plurality voting to the Condorcet method. Here it doesn’t work because of the plurality. Trump can beat the lot when the entire field of candidates exists (by a margin of about 14 points).

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John Kasich is Bothering Me

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As of Sunday March 13, 2016, There are 1,368 delegates left to be won in the Republican presidential primaries. It takes 1,237 delegates to lock up the party’s nomination. Ohio Governor John Kasich has currently won 63 delegates, leaving him needing 1,174 more delegates to win the nomination. Now, 17 of the 30 states/territories remaining in the primary election season have winner-take-all delegate election systems, meaning candidates who win those states take all of the delegates from that state. Those 17 winner-take-all states comprise 901 of the delegates remaining. So basically, in order for John Kasich to win the nomination pre-Convention, he would need to win every single winner-take-all state and then on top of that dominate in the states with proportional delegate election systems. In other words, there’s a 0% chance John Kasich wins the nomination before the National Convention. Actually, given just how low Kasich is in the polls, it can be stated with 100% surety that Kasich will not even be able to take the lead either. Marco Rubio is on the verge of being in both of these categories too.

 

Yet, Kasich claimed as late as February 28th that if he wins Ohio he’s “off to the races.” Then last Friday, March 11th at an MSNBC town hall, he claimed that he can “absolutely win enough and go into the convention with the greatest number of delegates,” and reaffirmed, “That absolutely can happen.” Um, no Governor Kasich, no it can’t and you are not serving the American people well by telling them it can.

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Statistical Outlook: Can the GOP Candidates Really Beat Hillary?

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(In the graph above, anything below zero means Hillary loses)

All the GOP candidates say that they beat Hillary in the polls. This is true and untrue. It’s true because each has at least one major poll that has them beating Hillary in the general election, it’s untrue because they disregard average margin of error, which is based on sample size. The only one who REALLY has a legitimate claim is Marco Rubio, who even only slightly exceeds the average margin of error. My point is this: it’s a virtual tie across the board  right now between any GOP candidate and Hillary. As a note, there is almost no polling data on a Kasich v. Clinton general election, so he’s discluded from this. Let’s run it down:

 

Trump vs. Hillary:

 

Trump beats Hillary in one of the last six major polls. In all, the average of the polls gives Hillary a +6.3 lead. The average margin of error is 3.13, For a percentage interval of +3.17 – +9.43 for Hillary. Trump fares worse than the other GOP candidates, and yet in terms of electoral history, this too is a virtual tie.

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Super Tuesday Breakdown: Trump and Clinton Dominate

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Here’s the likely winners for Super Tuesday states with avg. of polls lead in parenthesis:

GOP primaries:

Alabama: Trump (+17)

Georgia: Trump (+14)

Tennessee: Trump (+18)

Oklahoma: Trump (+11)

Massachusetts: Trump (+27)

Vermont: Trump (+15)

Virginia: Trump (+15)

Alaska: Trump or Cruz (Trump + 4 but only from one poll)

Arkansas: Trump or Cruz (Cruz +4)

Minnesota: Rubio (+2 but only from one poll)

Colorado: Trump or Rubio (Carson led in last major poll from Nov)

Wyoming: Any

Texas: Cruz or Trump (Cruz +9)

 

Democratic primaries:

Alabama: Clinton (+48)

Georgia: Clinton (+37)

Tennessee: Clinton (+26)

Oklahoma: Clinton or Sanders (Clinton +2)

Massachusetts: Clinton or Sanders (Clinton +7)

Vermont: Sanders (+74)

Virginia: Clinton (+22)

Arkansas: Clinton (+29)

Minnesota: Clinton (+34)

Colorado: Clinton (+28 but last major poll from Nov)

Texas: Clinton (+30)

 

Liberal Leaders Meet in D.C. to Discuss Rising Violent Crime in Their Cities

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So there was a meeting in D.C. about two weeks ago to discuss the stark rise in violent crime over the past year, especially in cities with liberal policies and mayors. The conclusion: police are “cowering” because of the war against them. And it’s true. Why would NYPD officers put themselves at risk for a leader like de Blasio who doesn’t stick up for them and has even attacked them? In general liberal leaders across the country have destroyed police morale and are contributing to the crumbling of American society. They need to be removed from office, because we are all in danger under their failed leadership. Police killings are fairly rare. Murder in general is not though; Nor is rape, or violent assault. These crimes are all skyrocketing under liberal leadership. But no one cares about the victims of these crimes. All anyone cares about is the rare unjustified police shooting. And so the mob has been riled up against the police under false pretenses. We get the society we deserve.

Please, For the Sake of Human Values, Let Us Not Turn From This

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America is facing a horrific scandal. No, this is not about Cecil the Lion (though certainly a troublesome story in its own right), instead this is about something a whole lot darker and more depraved. This is not the story of one man’s psychotic lust for animal heads on his wall, but of an entire system of ethics and morals gone awry. Yes, it’s time for Griffwood to cover the Planned Parenthood scandal, because hardly anyone else will give it a thorough examination.

As you may or may not know the Center For Medical Progress, an anti-abortion organization, recently conducted a sting in which it sent actors to pose as buyers of fetal tissue interested in obtaining specimens from Planned Parenthood (an organization that receives hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars every year). The “buyers” met with Planned Parenthood higher-ups and engaged them in discussions about the costs and techniques involved in the transfer of the fetal parts. All of it was secretly recorded on video and what transpired in the conversations shocked people across the country on both sides of the political aisle.

In this video we see Planned Parenthood Federation of America’s Senior Director of Medical Services, Dr. Deborah Nucatola happily nosh away at her food and sip wine as she casually describes the techniques Planned Parenthood Doctors use during abortions to avoid “crushing” fetuses, in order to remove the parts more intact: “We’ve been very good at getting heart, lung, liver, because we know that, so I’m not gonna crush that part, I’m gonna basically crush below, I’m gonna crush above, and I’m gonna see if I can get it all intact.” We also see her explain how the Federal Law banning partial-birth abortions is up for “interpretation” and seems to imply that some fetuses could be coming out alive.

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